Post Market Analysis dated 22.07.2026
KRVFinMart — Daily Market Outlook
Key Market Signals — Data: 22 Jul 2026
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NIFTY 50
23,996.25
▼ -191.45 (-0.79%)
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BANK NIFTY
57,126.80
▼ -708.55 (-1.23%)
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SENSEX
76,755.05
▼ -715.06 (-0.92%)
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Overall PCR
0.84
▼ 0.15 (-15.39%)
PCR dropped sharply from 0.99 to 0.84 — call OI flooded in (+36.89%) far faster than puts (+15.82%), signalling a meaningful shift toward bearish/hedging sentiment intraday.
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India VIX
13.29
▲ 0.69 (+5.50%)
VIX jumped 5.50% to 13.29 — still in the complacent zone overall, but the sharp single-day spike is a warning that fear is re-entering; options sellers should be cautious.
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Total OI Change
48,911,018
▲ 3,959,142 (+8.81%)
Strong fresh position build of +8.81% in total OI — new money is entering the market aggressively, both on calls and puts, pointing to directional positioning rather than passive carry.
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Futures OI
773,430
▲ 32,020 (+4.32%)
Futures OI expanded +4.32% while FII added massive gross shorts — the net futures build is bearish-directional, not a hedge rollover.
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Call OI Change
9,395,462
▲ 2,532,089 (+36.89%)
Call OI surged +36.89% — the largest single-day expansion of the day; this reflects aggressive call writing (supply cap) AND call buying (directional bets), net bearish for PCR.
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Put OI Change
7,890,224
▲ 1,077,646 (+15.82%)
Put OI rose +15.82% — meaningful, but call OI grew more than twice as fast, which is the arithmetic driver behind the PCR drop from 0.99 to 0.84 today.
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Deep Technical Analysis & Levels
Participant-wise Key Points
FII Strong Dual-Leg Bearish
- Futures net worsened from -228,847 to -251,704 (chg -22,857 contracts). On the long side, FIIs added a modest +724 contracts (prev 23,712 → today 24,436) tagged [Long Buildup – Low Vol] — the Low Vol tag reveals this long addition is tentative and lacks institutional conviction, likely a hedge against the short book rather than a directional bullish bet. On the short side, FIIs added a thundering +23,581 contracts (prev 252,559 → today 276,140) tagged [Short Buildup – High Vol] — the High Vol tag here is the critical signal: this is deliberate, high-conviction short addition. The resulting short-to-long ratio stands at 276,140 : 24,436 = 11.3:1, meaning FIIs are holding more than eleven short contracts for every one long — this is not hedging, this is outright directional conviction that Nifty and BankNifty will fall.
- Long PCR fell from 1.85 to 1.71 (-7.12%), and Short PCR fell from 0.56 to 0.55 (-1.72%). A Long PCR of 1.71 still means FIIs hold 1.71 put longs for every call long — this is a deeply defensive hedge posture. However, the 7.12% decline in Long PCR is notable: it tells us FIIs were adding call longs at a faster clip than put longs today (consistent with the call OI expansion across the market), but their put book remains dominant. The Short PCR of 0.55 means FIIs are writing almost twice as many calls as puts on the short side — this is a classic call-cap strategy that limits upside while their futures short earns if the market falls.
- Call OI net worsened from -170,055 to -248,973 (chg -78,918 contracts). FII call longs rose +116,512 contracts (prev 472,444 → today 588,956) [Long Buildup – Low Vol], while FII call shorts rose a larger +195,430 contracts (prev 642,499 → today 837,929) [Short Buildup – Low Vol]. The Low Vol tag on both legs suggests these are spread positions rather than naked directional bets, but the NET effect is clear: FIIs are net -248,973 contracts short on calls — they are selling the upside. Put OI net improved from +508,927 to +544,408 (chg +35,481 contracts). FII put longs rose +137,688 (prev 871,686 → today 1,009,374) [Long Buildup – Low Vol] and put shorts rose +102,207 (prev 362,759 → today 464,966) [Short Buildup – Low Vol]. The combination of net short calls (-248,973) and net long puts (+544,408) constructs a textbook synthetic short / protective collar — selling upside while owning downside protection.
- Synthesis — FII Dual-Leg Bearish Architecture: FIIs present the most internally consistent and aggressive bearish thesis of all four participants today. A futures net of -251,704 (deepening by -22,857 contracts on High Vol shorts), a Long PCR of 1.71 (owning far more puts than calls), net short calls at -248,973, and net long puts at +544,408 — all four legs point in exactly one direction: FIIs believe this market is heading lower. The architecture is a synthetic short reinforced by a protective collar — futures shorts carry the directional payload, while the options book (long puts, short calls) creates a self-financing hedged downside position that profits even if the futures leg is squeezed. What makes this reading particularly important today is that all three major indices (Nifty, BankNifty, Sensex) opened gap-down, stayed inside prior range, and closed without breaking PDH — which means FIIs were not squeezed, their position was not challenged, and they added more shorts into the weakness. The one internal nuance worth noting: the Low Vol tags on all options legs suggest the options build happened via spread constructions (possibly bear call spreads and put debit spreads), meaning FIIs are managing cost and risk actively — this is not reckless conviction, it is engineered bearish exposure.
- Forward trigger: Watch whether FII futures net crosses below -260,000 in tomorrow’s data — any further addition beyond today’s -251,704 would signal FIIs are doubling down and the bearish thesis is accelerating. On the price side, the critical level is Nifty 23,939.90 (Day S3 Camarilla) — a sustained break and close below S3 would validate FII’s short position directionally and could trigger a mechanical cascade toward S4 at 23,883.56. Conversely, if Nifty gaps up and sustains above 24,063.85 (Day TC CPR) with FII futures net improving toward -240,000, the first signs of short-covering would emerge and the bearish thesis would require reassessment.
⟶ Tomorrow: FII shorts are at their deepest reading in recent sessions at -251,704 net futures contracts. Watch Nifty’s ability to hold above 24,018.79 (Day BC CPR) — a sustained break below this level would validate FII positioning and expose S3 at 23,939.90. Any FII futures net improvement toward -240,000 would be the first signal of thesis reversal and potential short-covering rally.
Pro Cautiously Bullish with Hedged Options
- Futures net improved from +5,239 to +13,299 (chg +8,060 contracts). Pro longs increased +3,780 contracts (prev 41,021 → today 44,801) tagged [Long Buildup – High Vol] — the High Vol tag here is important: this is not a tentative addition, this is high-conviction long accumulation by Proprietary desks. Simultaneously, Pro shorts decreased by -4,280 contracts (prev 35,782 → today 31,502) tagged [Short Covering – Avg Vol] — Pros actively covered their short book even as the market was under pressure from a gap-down open. The combination of High Vol long addition + Average Vol short covering = Pros are positioning net long directionally, betting on a recovery.
- Long PCR fell sharply from 1.08 to 0.83 (-23.07%), and Short PCR fell from 1.01 to 0.77 (-23.21%). Both PCR ratios dropped by roughly the same magnitude (-23%), which is unusual and meaningful. A Long PCR dropping from 1.08 to 0.83 means Pros shifted from holding more put longs than call longs to the reverse — they added call longs at a significantly faster rate than put longs today, signalling a pivot toward bullish options directional exposure. The Short PCR dropping from 1.01 to 0.77 means they shifted from writing equal puts and calls to writing significantly more puts — this is a bullish put-writing stance, collecting premium on the short-put side while the market is near support. Taken together, the PCR structure says Pros are expressing a range-bound-to-mildly-bullish view through their options book while remaining net long in futures.
- Call OI net improved from +15,596 to +69,005 (chg +53,409 contracts). Pro call longs jumped +359,291 contracts (prev 724,714 → today 1,084,005) [Long Buildup – Low Vol], while Pro call shorts rose +305,882 contracts (prev 709,118 → today 1,015,000) [Short Buildup – Low Vol]. The net of +69,005 on calls means Pros are net long calls — they own more call exposure than they are writing, which is a bullish options tilt. Put OI net improved from +66,534 to +113,272 (chg +46,738 contracts). Pro put longs rose +117,443 (prev 779,626 → today 897,069) [Long Buildup – Low Vol] and put shorts rose +70,705 (prev 713,092 → today 783,797) [Short Buildup – Low Vol]. The net of +113,272 on puts means Pros also own more puts than they are writing — a hedging layer over their net long futures position. This combined structure (net long calls + net long puts + net long futures) is a long-strangle-with-futures setup, which profits from a directional move in either direction but is directionally tilted bullish via the futures leg.
- Synthesis — Pro Counter-Trend Long with Hedged Strangle: Pros are the market’s natural contra-party and today their positioning is genuinely interesting — they are swimming against the FII current. Their futures net moved from +5,239 to +13,299 (+8,060), adding High Vol longs and covering shorts into a gap-down open, which tells us Pros believe the gap-down was an overreaction or that support levels near current prices are real. Their options book is constructed as a long strangle (net long calls +69,005 and net long puts +113,272) overlaid on a net long futures position — this is a synthetic long with volatility protection, suggesting Pros are bullish on direction but are hedging the scenario where they are wrong. The falling Long PCR (1.08→0.83) and falling Short PCR (1.01→0.77) both point to Pros shifting their options weight toward calls (bullish directional) and toward put-writing (premium income near support). One important caveat: all Pro options tags carry Low Vol, suggesting these positions were built through accumulated smaller clips rather than block trades — conviction exists but is expressed methodically rather than aggressively.
- Forward trigger: Watch Pro futures net — if it crosses above +15,000 contracts tomorrow, Pros are doubling down on the bullish thesis and a short-squeeze scenario becomes more probable. The specific price trigger is Nifty sustaining above 24,063.85 (Day TC CPR) on open: if price holds TC and Pros continue reducing shorts while FII short-covering follows, the target becomes Day R4 at 24,108.94 and then Traditional R2 at 24,246.22. A failure to reclaim TC would invalidate the Pro bullish bet and expose the FII short thesis.
⟶ Tomorrow: Pros built a net long futures position to +13,299 contracts while adding High Vol longs into gap-down weakness — a clear contra-trend bullish signal. Watch Nifty 24,063.85 (Day TC CPR) as the key level: sustained trade above TC validates Pro positioning and targets 24,108.94 (R4). A failure below 24,018.79 (Day BC CPR) would invalidate the Pro bullish thesis and hand the narrative back to FII shorts.
Clients (Retail) Aggressively Long Futures, Hedged with Short Puts
- Futures net improved from +148,081 to +164,583 (chg +16,502 contracts). Retail client longs rose +13,016 contracts (prev 214,933 → today 227,949) tagged [Long Buildup – High Vol] — the High Vol tag confirms this is not casual accumulation; retail is meaningfully adding longs with conviction. Simultaneously, client shorts fell by -3,486 contracts (prev 66,852 → today 63,366) tagged [Short Covering – Avg Vol] — retail is covering short positions into weakness, indicating they believe the gap-down represents a buying opportunity rather than the start of a fresh downtrend. At +164,583 net long, Clients are the largest net long participant in futures by a significant margin, dwarfing Pro (+13,299) and directly opposing FII (-251,704).
- Long PCR fell from 0.77 to 0.66 (-14.04%), and Short PCR fell from 1.12 to 0.95 (-15.40%). The Long PCR of 0.66 tells us retail holds significantly more call longs than put longs — this is an inherently bullish options posture. However, the sharp -14.04% drop in Long PCR reveals that retail was buying calls at a dramatically faster pace than puts today, which explains the massive +790,141 call OI addition on the long side. The Short PCR dropping from 1.12 to 0.95 is the most alarming signal: retail shifted from writing more puts than calls (a bullish income strategy) to writing roughly equal puts and calls — this means retail’s traditional put-writing income strategy weakened today, and the flood of put shorts is being outpaced by call shorts, hinting at increasing uncertainty on the retail side despite the bullish futures tilt.
- Call OI net improved from +146,775 to +172,273 (chg +25,498 contracts). Retail call longs surged +790,141 contracts (prev 2,226,814 → today 3,016,955) [Long Buildup – Low Vol] while retail call shorts rose +764,643 contracts (prev 2,080,039 → today 2,844,682) [Short Buildup – Low Vol]. The sheer scale of retail call activity (+790K longs, +764K shorts) dwarfs every other participant — retail is the dominant call options trader in this market and their Low Vol tags suggest these additions were spread across many smaller accounts rather than concentrated blocks. Put OI net worsened from -609,176 to -691,782 (chg -82,606 contracts). Retail put longs rose +283,305 (prev 1,721,080 → today 2,004,385) [Long Buildup – Low Vol] but put shorts rose more aggressively at +365,911 (prev 2,330,256 → today 2,696,167) [Short Buildup – Low Vol], widening the net put short position to -691,782. Retail remains the dominant put writer — they are selling downside protection to FIIs who are buying puts, effectively acting as the counterparty to FII’s defensive hedge.
- Synthesis — Retail Bull Squeeze Risk Architecture: Retail is aggressively positioned for a market recovery: +164,583 net long in futures, net long calls at +172,273, and acting as the primary put seller at -691,782 net short puts. This creates a dangerous concentration risk — retail is on the opposite side of FII’s high-conviction bearish architecture in both futures AND options. If the market breaks lower and FII shorts prove correct, retail faces a triple whammy: futures longs mark-to-market losses, put short positions accelerating against them (puts they sold to FIIs gain value), and call longs decaying rapidly. The Low Vol tags across all retail options legs confirm this build happened through the retail crowd — thousands of smaller accounts collectively creating a structural imbalance. The classic retail trap pattern is visibly forming: retail is buying the gap-down dip with leverage in futures while writing puts to fund call purchases, at a time when the market’s VIX is rising and FII smart money is aggressively building shorts.
- Forward trigger: Watch the Nifty 23,961.40 (PDL — Prior Day Low) level closely tomorrow — if Nifty breaks and sustains below PDL, retail futures longs will begin stop-loss triggering, and the net long position at +164,583 becomes forced selling. Additionally, watch whether retail’s put short position (currently -691,782) begins unwinding (i.e., clients start buying back puts) — that behavioral shift would signal retail is cutting losses and would accelerate any downward move. The specific data trigger to watch tomorrow: if Client futures net drops below +150,000, the retail long thesis is cracking.
⟶ Tomorrow: Retail holds the market’s largest net long futures position at +164,583 contracts while being massively net short puts at -691,782 — a high-risk setup if the market breaks lower. Watch Nifty PDL at 23,961.40 as the critical pain point for retail longs. A break below PDL on volume triggers forced stop-losses across this crowded retail long position and could amplify any FII-driven downside move sharply.
DII Marginally Bearish — Light Position Reduction
- Futures net worsened from +75,527 to +73,822 (chg -1,705 contracts). DII longs decreased -1,510 contracts (prev 91,039 → today 89,529) tagged [Long Unwinding – Low Vol] — the Low Vol tag confirms this is not panic selling but a quiet, measured reduction of existing long exposure. DII shorts rose marginally +195 contracts (prev 15,512 → today 15,707) tagged [Short Buildup – Avg Vol]. While the magnitude of change is small relative to FII and retail moves today, the direction is notable: DIIs are the only participant reducing long futures exposure on a day when both retail and Pro were adding longs, suggesting institutional domestic money managers are taking a more cautious stance on the current price levels.
- DII PCR data is not applicable — DII options positions are negligible relative to their futures book, and no Long PCR or Short PCR is available for meaningful interpretation. DII call options net stands at a token +7,695 contracts (long 7,815, short 120) and put options net at +34,102 contracts (long 34,284, short 182) — these are trivially small compared to FII’s options book of hundreds of thousands of contracts. DII activity in derivatives is predominantly futures-driven; their options OI is best interpreted as incidental hedges on the margin.
- Call OI net (DII): +7,695 contracts (prev +7,685 → today +7,695, chg +10). DII call longs rose a token +100 contracts (prev 7,715 → today 7,815) [Long Buildup – Low Vol] and call shorts rose +90 contracts (prev 30 → today 120) [Short Buildup – Avg Vol]. Put OI net (DII): +34,102 contracts (prev +33,715 → today +34,102, chg +387). DII put longs rose +387 contracts (prev 33,897 → today 34,284) [Long Buildup – Low Vol] and put shorts held unchanged at 182 [Short Flat – Low Vol]. The token put long addition (+387) is the most meaningful data point here — DIIs are adding minimal put protection, consistent with a cautious hedging posture rather than outright bearish positioning. These options positions are too small to drive market dynamics.
- Synthesis — DII Quiet Defensive Retreat: DII’s message today is subtle but directionally clear — they are quietly stepping back. A -1,705 net futures reduction from +75,527 to +73,822, Long Unwinding tagged on the long side, and negligible options activity together describe an institution that is not adding directional risk at current levels. DIIs are the most cautious of the four participants today, and their caution carries weight because these are domestic institutions (mutual funds, insurance companies) with a long-term investment mandate — when they reduce rather than add on a gap-down day, it signals they do not see the current level as a compelling value-buy opportunity. This is consistent with the broader market context: FIIs are aggressively short, VIX is rising, and PCR is falling. DIIs appear to be conserving dry powder rather than catching a falling knife.
- Forward trigger: Watch whether DII futures net falls below +70,000 contracts in tomorrow’s data — a continued reduction would confirm DIIs are entering a de-risking phase and would remove one of the natural demand buffers that has historically cushioned Nifty declines. On the price side, the Nifty Monthly BC at 23,665.88 is the positional level DIIs would likely treat as a medium-term buying zone — any price approach toward that level may trigger DII re-accumulation, which would be a significant support signal for positional traders.
⟶ Tomorrow: DIIs trimmed futures net to +73,822 contracts via quiet long unwinding — their most cautious stance in the current session. Watch whether DII futures net stabilises above +73,000 or continues sliding: a further reduction below +70,000 would signal institutional domestic caution is deepening. DII options activity remains negligible and provides no additional directional signal.
Bull vs Bear Strength by Participant
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FII
Strong Bearish 88%
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Clients
Bullish (At Risk) 65%
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Pro
Mild Bullish 55%
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DII
Cautious/Neutral 40%
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Conclusion — Market Outlook for Tomorrow (23 Jul 2026)
Today’s session delivered a clear and internally consistent bearish message: all three indices (Nifty, BankNifty, Sensex) gapped down, failed to fill their gaps, stayed inside prior day’s range, and closed below their respective Day BC CPR levels. This is not an ambiguous reading — it is a uniform, broad-based signal that sellers controlled every session from open to close. The WHY behind this is rooted in FII positioning: FIIs added a massive +23,581 short contracts on High Vol conviction (net futures now at -251,704), creating an 11.3:1 short-to-long ratio in futures, while simultaneously building their options book into a synthetic short / protective collar structure (net short calls -248,973, net long puts +544,408). FIIs are not hedging — they are making a high-conviction directional bet that this market falls, and they executed that bet aggressively today even as retail added +16,502 net longs. The Overall PCR collapsing from 0.99 to 0.84 (-15.39%) on a day when call OI surged +36.89% versus put OI’s +15.82% tells the same story: supply (call writing, bearish positioning) overwhelmed demand (put buying, bullish hedging) in the options market. India VIX rising +5.50% to 13.29 is the punctuation mark — fear is re-entering a previously complacent market, and option buyers are starting to pay up for protection.
Tomorrow’s session is likely to be a volatile range day — the OI data (options expanding on both sides simultaneously) and the medium-width CPRs for all three indices collectively point toward range-bound with sharp intraday swings rather than a clean trend day. However, the bias within that range is tilted bearish. The specific data architecture supporting this: FII shorts at -251,704 create significant downward pressure; retail longs at +164,583 create a natural stop-loss cluster below PDL (23,961.40 for Nifty) that could accelerate any downside move; and all three indices are trading below their Day BC levels, meaning the burden of proof falls on the bulls to reclaim CPR. The Nifty/BankNifty ratio of 2.38 confirms both indices are moving in tandem — there is no sector-level divergence to exploit. Pro desks are the one counter-signal: their High Vol Long Buildup in futures (+3,780 contracts) and Short Covering (-4,280) represent informed institutional money buying the dip, which could provide a temporary floor near current levels. Watch the first 30 minutes closely — if Nifty holds above Day BC 24,018.79 and Pro/Client buying absorbs FII selling pressure, a range recovery toward Day TC 24,063.85 and then R3 24,052.60 is achievable. If it fails, the path to S3 23,939.90 and S4 23,883.56 opens rapidly.
What could change the bearish scenario: If FII futures net improves meaningfully toward -240,000 in tomorrow’s data (indicating short-covering), that would be the first sign of a thesis flip and could trigger a sharp short-squeeze rally. A VIX reversal back below 12.60 would also signal that the fear spike was a one-day event. On the downside, the scenario that would confirm and accelerate bearishness is a break and sustained trade below Nifty PDL 23,961.40 — this would trigger retail stop-losses across the crowded +164,583 net long position and could cascade toward the 23,866–23,883 (W-S2 / Day S4) confluence support zone. Positional traders should note that all three indices maintain monthly bullish structures (above M-TC), meaning this is a correction within an uptrend until proven otherwise — the Nifty M-TC at 23,799.12 is the line in the sand for the monthly bull thesis.
Scenario 1 — Bull case:
Nifty opens and sustains above Day BC 24,018.79 in the first 15 minutes, Pro desks continue High Vol long accumulation, and FII futures net shows any improvement from -251,704 toward -240,000 in tomorrow’s data. This triggers a short-squeeze rally toward Day TC 24,063.85, then R3 24,052.60, and ultimately R4 24,108.94. Traditional R1 at 24,121.24 is the bull case target for the day.
Scenario 2 — Bear case:
Nifty opens and fails to reclaim Day BC 24,018.79, confirming sellers’ control from yesterday’s close. A break below PDL 23,961.40 triggers retail stop-losses on the crowded +164,583 net long position, creating a cascade toward Day S3 23,939.90. If S3 fails to hold, Day S4 23,883.56 and Weekly S2 23,866.83 form the next major confluence support, and FII’s -251,704 futures short position begins marking large paper profits.
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Key Resistance
24,063.85 (Nifty Day TC CPR) and 24,108.94 (Nifty Day R4 Camarilla) — FII’s net short call position (-248,973 contracts) creates a structural supply ceiling in this zone; any bounce is likely to be sold here unless FII short-covering begins. For BankNifty, 57,397.30 (Day TC) and 57,596.17 (R4) are equivalent supply zones.
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Key Support
23,961.40 (Nifty PDL) and 23,939.90 (Nifty Day S3 Camarilla) — this is the critical retail stop-loss cluster zone; a break here with retail holding +164,583 net longs creates a mechanical forced-selling cascade. Secondary support at 23,883.56 (S4) / 23,866.83 (Weekly S2) confluence. For BankNifty, 56,892.12 (S3) and 56,657.43 (S4) are equivalent danger zones.
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Trigger to Watch
Nifty’s relationship with Day BC 24,018.79 in the first 15 minutes of tomorrow’s session — sustained trade above BC signals recovery and Pro counter-trend longs may be vindicated; sustained trade below BC (especially below PDL 23,961.40) triggers the bear cascade scenario driven by FII’s -251,704 net short position. Secondary trigger: India VIX crossing back above 13.50 would confirm fear expansion and accelerate put buying.
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